Many
books have been written that claim
that Blackjack is beatable.
Simulations
performed show different amounts
of potential player advantage in
theory in Blackjack, depending
on strategies, exact rules, and
playing conditions. These numbers
typically approach 1% (an average
penny gain for every dollar bet)
though in certain particular, ideal
circumstances this can get somewhat
higher. There is disagreement on
the net about how much advantage
this translates into in "real-world" casinos,
but it's generally believed that
players can play with a small,
long-run advantage in Blackjack.
The variance is very high in this
game, however, which makes the
slight advantage in Blackjack far
from a sure thing.
How
much of an advantage can card
counting give?
A
typical blackjack card counter
will have an edge of 1.5% or less,
depending on the counting system
used, the skill of the player,
and the particular casinos house
rules that the player is fighting
against. It is quite unusual to
find playing conditions that allow
the player to get more than a 2%
edge against the house, even against
single deck blackjack games. The
player's edge against multi-deck
blackjack games is generally less
than 1%.
Is
card counting illegal?
No.
The casinos would like you to believe
that card counting is illegal,
immoral, and fattening, but the
fact is that card counters are
simply using a greater level of
skill than the typical blackjack
player. The Nevada courts have
ruled that blackjack players are
free to use any information that
is made available to them, provided
that there is no collusion between
a player and casino personnel.
For example, if a dealer accidentally
handles the cards in such a way
that a player can see the dealer's
hole card, the player can make
use of this information without breaking the law.
Can
the casino ban blackjack card
counters?
This
depends on where you play. In Atlantic
City Casinos, where games of skill
are not permitted, the casinos
are not allowed to ban skillful
players. In Nevada, casinos are
allowed to refuse service to anyone
at any time for any reason. Players
are routinely "barred",
usually by being asked to leave
or by being told that they are
welcome to play any game other
than blackjack. If you are barred
but persist in trying to play,
the casino can have you arrested
for trespassing.
What
is the correct basic strategy
for single deck Blackjack?
The
following basic blackjack strategy
is for single deck blackjack games
without DAS (double-after-splits).
S=stand H=hit D=double P=pair(split),
DH= double if allowed, otherwise hit
DS= double if allowed, otherwise stand
[uppercase] = "strong" hand, favorable to player
[lowercase] = "weak" hand, favorable to house
(*)
notes:
Playing A7 against dealer's ace:
- hitting gains 4.08% if dealer must hit on soft 17
- standing gains 0.74% if dealer must stand on soft 17
Playing
A8 against dealer's 6:
- doubling gains 1.96% if dealer must hit on soft 17
- doubling gains 0.03% if dealer must stand on soft 17 (this rule may be ignored to simplify the strategy)
What
is the correct basic strategy
for Atlantic City blackjack?
The
following basic strategy is for
typical Atlantic City rules.
HOUSE
RULES:
Cards are dealt from 6 decks.
Dealer must stand on any
17.
Double-down allowed on soft
hands.
Pairs may be split only
once.
Player may double-down after
splitting pairs.
Surrender is not allowed.
Strategy
Table For Atlantic City Blackjack
S=stand H=hit D=double P=split Q=surrender
NOTES:
If more than one option
is listed, options to the
left are preferred over options
to the right. Options less
favorable than STAND or HIT
are not shown.
Use the "Hard Hands" table
only when the other tables
do not apply.
If splitting Aces is not
allowed, use the "Soft
Hands" table.
Uppercase options favor
the player, lowercase options
favor the house.
What
is the house edge when playing
basic blackjack strategy?
The
expected gain for basic strategy
play depends on the house rules and the
number of decks. The following
table summarizes the player's expectation
for a variety of games. All numbers
are in units of percent of initial
bet.
"AC" rules
(typical of Atlantic City):
dealer stands on soft 17
double down on any two cards
double after splits
no resplitting
"strip" rules(typical
of Vegas Strip):
dealer stands on soft 17
double down on any two cards
(but not after splits)
"vegas" rules
(typical of Vegas Downtown):
dealer hits soft 17
double down on any two cards
(but not after splits)
"reno" rules
(typical of Reno, northern Nevada):
dealer hits soft 17
double down allowed on two
card total of 10 or 11 only
DAS
= Double After Splitting
LSR = Late Surrender
ESR = Early Surrender (no longer available)
Why
are single deck games better
than multi-deck games?
There
are some surface differences, such
as single and double deck usually
being hand-held, while four or
more decks are dealt from a shoe,
but there are fundamental mathematical
differences too.
Single
deck blackjack is usually better
than multiple deck blackjack for
card counters, basic strategists,
and the clueless. Additional decks
make busts less likely, since one
can draw to hands like 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2
(for 18) which are improbable/impossible
in single deck. Busting less often
helps the dealer's hand more than
yours, since the dealer is forced
by the rigid rules to hit more
often than you. Blackjacks are
also less frequent, which is bad
since you get paid 3 to 2 for those.
All in all, multiple decks will
cost a basic strategist nearly
0.5% in advantage, which is more
than all but the very best package
of
favorable extra rules will give you. This was an intuitive explanation; a complete
mathematically sound (albeit huge) proof can be generated by a combinatorial
analysis program.
Card
counters face the additional problem
that the count is less volatile
with multiple decks and hence offers
less frequent opportunities for
large favorable bets. Consider
the difference between an urn with
1 black and 1 white marble versus
an urn with 100 black and 100 white
marbles. Draw half the marbles:
what is the probability that all
the remaining marbles are white?
In the 1 and 1 case, there is a
1 in 2 chance. In the 100 and 100
case, there is only a 1 in 100,891,344,545,564,193,334,812,497,256
chance!
Do
'bad' players at third base have
any effect on expected gain?
No.
It is a common misconception that
incorrect plays by the player at
third base will "take the
dealer's bust card" or "leave
the dealer a good card". As
long as the shuffle is sufficient
to randomize the cards, improper
play of other players will be just
as likely to help as it is to hurt.
However, bad players can cause
frustration and anxiety which may
increase the likelihood of making
mistakes. It is best to avoid the
temptation to strangle bad players.
Where
is the best place to sit at a
blackjack table.
It
depends. For basic strategy players,
seat position has NO significant
effect on the player's expected
return. For card counters who use
strategy variations, it is probably
best to sit at third base in order
to see as many cards as possible
before playing the hand. When playing
against a "front loading" dealer,
the best seat is whichever seat
gives you the best shot at getting
a glimpse of the dealer's hole
card. When playing at the Rio,
the best seat is the one that gives
the best view of the cocktail waitresses.
How
is blackjack card counting done?
The
card counting system described
below is an unbalanced 10 count
that is 100%
accurate for determining when to take insurance. As a general purpose card
counting system, it is relatively weak and not particularly recommended, but
it illustrates many of the principles behind card counting. This is intended
only to give a feel for how card counting is done, and is not recommended for
actual practice, although I've used it because of its simplicity. This counting
strategy is listed as "Unbalanced 10 Count" in other parts of the
FAQ list.
For
single deck games:
1) Start the count at -4 when the deck is shuffled.
2) Count -2 for 10, J, Q, K
3) Count +1 for everything else (including aces)
4) Bet low when the count is negative, high when the count is positive (actually,
simulations show that you can bet high for a count of -2 or above).
5) Take insurance when the count is positive.
6) Play basic strategy at all times.
For
N deck games:
1) Start the count at (-4 * N).
2) all other rules are the same.
Notes:
The
unique feature of this counting
method is that it is perfectly
accurate for dealing with insurance.
When the count is positive, the
player has the advantage when taking
the insurance bet. When the count
is negative, the house has the
advantage, so insurance should
not be taken.
Counting
is best done by counting several
cards at once. It is easy to practice
this counting method in the following
way:
1)
Count through a deck of cards, counting one card at a time. Start at -4, and
count through the entire deck. After all of the cards have been seen, the
count should be ZERO. If it is not zero, a mistake has been made somewhere.
Repeat counting through the deck one card at a time, until you can do it
quickly without making mistakes.
2)
Count through the deck, counting two cards at a time. Look for the following
patterns, adding the correct amount for each pattern
(X = 10, N = non-ten)
NN: +2
XN: -1
XX: -4
Again, the count should be zero after all cards have been seen. Repeat until
you can do it efficiently.
3)
Count through the deck, counting three cards at a time. Look for the following
patterns, adding the correct amount for each pattern.
(X = 10, N = non-ten)
NNN +3
XNN 0 (this pattern is common)
XXN -3
4)
Practice against a computer blackjack game. When I play, I usually count the
cards by counting an entire hand (player's or dealers) at once. If there
are more than three cards in the hand, I mentally break it up into groups
of 1, 2, or 3 cards (I usually look for "XNN" patterns and ignore
those cards, since they add up to zero). I usually count the cards just before
the dealer picks up the hand (exception: for insurance, you should count
your cards and the dealer's up card immediately).
What
counting system is "best"?
This
has been answered by rec.gamblers
using different approaches.
The
first approach is to evaluate different
systems by simulation. This approach
obscures the particular advantages
of each system, but it's easy to
see how a system will perform in
one particular realistic casino
playing situation, and not hard
to judge the tradeoff between performance
and ease of use.
The
second approach estimates several
performance parameters of each
system that collectively approximate
the system's inherent potential.
This allows the strengths of different
BJ systems to be studied in detail,
which should allow better, more
precise comparison of different
systems and aid efforts to improve
a particular system. This approach
gives results which may be used
to determine which counting system
is theoretically most profitable,
but does not address the issue
of how easy it is to use the counting
system under actual playing conditions.
It's
not yet clear how these two studies
relate, and no consensus has emerged
as to how the more sophisticated
performance parameters actually
translate to advantage at the tables
as in the simulations.
What
counting system is easiest to
use?
Background:
Lots of systems are available.
There is an important tradeoff
between complexity and theoretical
power, as more complex systems
are harder to use and more error-prone.
Answer:
You pick 'em. A study was accomplished
that compared different systems,
and here a summary of what came
out:
Complexity
is a subjective measure with guidelines
described in the results paper.
Power is the integer closest to
p/0.05%, where p is the % advantage
of the strategy one-on-one in a
single deck, dealer hits on soft
17, no DDAS, resplitting-allowed
game that's dealt down to 20 cards
and using a 1-4 betting spread.
15,000,000 hands guarantee correctness
to within 1 point 99% of the time.
WGBJB: "World's
Greatest BlackJack Book" by
Humble and Cooper
PBaaB: "Playing Blackjack as a Business" by Lawrence Revere
BiB: "Blackbelt in Blackjack" by Arnold Snyder
PB: "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong
TtToLV: "Turning the Tables on Las Vegas" by Ian Andersen
MDB: "Million Dollar Blackjack" by Ken Uston
(1) with modifications by 'thunk'
(2) with modifications by Paul C. Kim
What
Blackjack counting system is
most effective?
The
playing efficiency, betting correlation,
and insurance correlation is listed
below for several counting systems.
These numbers give an indication
of the effectiveness of the counting
system. When two numbers are listed,
the second number results from
adding an ace side count in addition
to the "main" count.
See
our 'Blackjack termnology' found
in Free Blackjacks Menu for definitions
of "betting correlation", "playing
efficiency", and "insurance
correlation".
Note:
Playing efficiencies have a practical
maximum of about 0.7. "Unbal
10's" is short for "Unbalanced
10 Count"
Does
penetration have any effect on
basic strategy expectation?
Probably
not. Unless the dealer is cheating,
the cards will be in a random order
after the shuffle. If the player
is not counting cards or using
other techniques to gain an advantage,
it will not matter if there are
several rounds or only a single
round between shuffles. But, if
the dealer if using preferential
shuffling, this will hurt the basic
strategy players as well as the
card counters.
What
is the correct strategy for late
surrender?
Basic
strategy for late surrender in
AC multi-deck games is:
Surrender hard 16 (but
not 8-8) vs. 9, 10, ace
Surrender hard 15 vs. 10
If
you are the least bit risk-averse,
you should also:
Surrender hard 15 vs. ace
At
some casinos you can surrender
your first two cards. You lose
half your bet in return for not
having to play through the hand.
With early surrender, you get back
half your bet even if the dealer
has blackjack, while with late
surrender you lose anyway when
the dealer has blackjack.
What
is the correct strategy for "multi
action" blackjack?
Multi
Action blackjack allows the player
to place up to three bets simultaneously
on the same blackjack hand. The
player is dealt a single hand,
and the three bets are played out
against the same dealer upcard,
but with different "drawn" cards
for each bet. Many players feel
nervous about hitting stiff hands
against a high dealer's upcard
(7 or higher), since they will
lose all three bets if they bust.
However, basic strategy is COMPLETELY
UNCHANGED for this game, and the
correct strategy is no different
than if the player had
only a single bet at risk.
What
is "Over/Under" Blackjack?
Caesar's
Tahoe introduced the Over-13 and
Under-13 side bets that are allowed
at some blackjack tables. These
bets are based on the player's
total for the first two cards,
when aces are counted as one. Over-13
bets win when the player's cards
total 14 or higher, while under-13
bets win when the player's cards
total 12 or under. Either bet will
lose when the player's total is
exactly 13. These bets are placed
at the same time as the blackjack
bet, and usually the side bet can
be no larger than the bet on the
blackjack hand. Over/under games
are usually dealt from a 6 or 8
deck shoe, and the player's
first two cards are always dealt face up. Although these are "sucker" bets
for basic strategy players, with a house edge of 6% to 10%, special card counting
strategies can be used to give the player a significant edge on these bets.
What
is the counting strategy for
Over/Under blackjack?
The
card weights used for the Over/Under
count are as follows: count +1
for Ace, 2, 3, and 4, and count
-1 for tens and face cards. The
deck becomes favorable for counts
of +2 and above, and for counts
-4 and below. Over-13 bets should
be placed when the count is +3
and above. Under-13 bets should
be placed when the count is -4
and below.
When
playing Over/Under blackjack with
this counting scheme, virtually
all of the player's profit comes
from the over-13 and under-13 side
bets. This counting scheme is very
poor for playing the blackjack
portion of the bet, and will only
allow the player to play about
even with the house on the blackjack
bets. However, the over/under bets
can be very profitable if the game
has good penetration. A 6-deck
over/under game with good penetration
can give the player an advantage
of 1.5% or more. Single deck over/under
games with good penetration (very
rare) can give the player an edge
of over 4% when using the over/under
count.
Snyder's "Over/Under
Report" discusses the over/under
game in detail, and is available
from our Blackjack Books Section.
Is
Ken Uston dead?
Yes.
He was found dead in a rented apartment
in Paris, France, on September
19,
1987. The cause of death remains undetermined, since an autopsy was not performed
and the body was cremated. The local police found no evidence of foul play.
Alcohol and drug abuse were strongly suspected by several people who knew Uston
intimately. Reference: Stanley Roberts, "A Double Dose of Death",
Roberts' Rules (column), Gambling Times, Jan./Feb., 1988, pp. 8, 41. That article
is the only printed mention that I have seen on Uston's death. Maybe someone
else has the citation for the Card Player article?
What
do these funny acronyms mean
...
The
acronyms that are often used in
blackjack are listed below.